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Will Virginia reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?

data as of 2026-07-24 22:19 UTC▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Sep 1, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
31¢
NO
68¢
YES
31¢
YesY-NNo
Position$429+$276$153
Holders35+296
Trades52+3913
NO
68¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate31.8%
+31.8 pp
0.0%
Avg ROI-1.8%
−1.8 pp
0.0%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.03
+1.03×
×0.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.04
+1.04×
×0.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$522
+$563
−$40
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+1.00
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-4.3%
−4.3 pp
0.0%
Underwater %91.2%
+91.2 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %3.1%
+3.1 pp
0.0%
Bot %6.3%
+6.3 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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