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Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

data as of 2026-07-04 12:28 UTC● RESOLVEDUp won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP✓ WON
100¢
DOWN
0¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
100¢
UpU-DDown
Position$9.6K+$6.1K$3.5K
Holders86−31117
Trades969−431.0K
DOWN
0¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate44.8%
−1.7 pp
46.5%
Avg ROI-6.1%
−2.9 pp
-3.2%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.56
−20.76×
×21.33
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.58
−20.49×
×21.08
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$2.1K
+$764
$1.3K
Recent buyer dominance0.83
−0.13
0.96
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL72.9%
+168.3 pp
-95.3%
Underwater %0.0%
−99.8 pp
99.8%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %52.4%
−5.4 pp
57.7%
Bot %64.0%
−1.1 pp
65.1%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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