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Will anyone say "Mustard" 10+ times during 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?

data as of 2026-07-03 22:24 UTC▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Jul 4, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
78¢
NO
54¢
YES
78¢
YesY-NNo
Position$33+$22$11
Holders2+11
Trades2+11
NO
54¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate44.7%
−1.1 pp
45.8%
Avg ROI9.6%
−10.3 pp
19.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.00
+0.00×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.00
+0.00×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$33
+$22
$11
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-0.0%
−0.0 pp
0.0%
Underwater %0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Bot %0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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