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Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

data as of 2026-06-15 23:29 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Jun 30, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
14¢
NO
85¢
YES
14¢
YesY-NNo
Position$3.2K−$658$3.8K
Holders70+1456
Trades662+118544
NO
85¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate38.9%
−12.2 pp
51.1%
Avg ROI2.8%
+0.0 pp
2.8%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×3.42
+2.86×
×0.56
Top-20 avg cost vs price×3.21
+2.54×
×0.67
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$36
−$294
$258
Recent buyer dominance0.01
−0.99
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-68.7%
−132.2 pp
63.5%
Underwater %96.7%
+78.4 pp
18.3%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %16.0%
+2.0 pp
14.0%
Bot %16.0%
+2.0 pp
14.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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