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Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?

data as of 2026-05-04 18:36 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: YesTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
67¢
NO
32¢
YES
67¢
YesY-NNo
Position$709−$927$1.6K
Holders20−121
Trades72−375
NO
32¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate57.3%
+33.3 pp
24.0%
Avg ROI0.4%
+4.0 pp
-3.5%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.18
−0.85×
×2.03
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.15
−0.26×
×1.40
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$7
+$15
−$8
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+1.00
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-12.8%
+17.5 pp
-30.2%
Underwater %81.6%
+13.2 pp
68.4%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %18.4%
−12.7 pp
31.1%
Bot %18.4%
−12.7 pp
31.1%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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