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Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?

data as of 2026-06-15 12:54 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Jun 30, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
9¢
NO
89¢
YES
9¢
YesY-NNo
Position$924−$12K$13K
Holders125+5120
Trades926+378548
NO
89¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate49.7%
−35.2 pp
85.0%
Avg ROI4.6%
+3.7 pp
0.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.44
−0.63×
×1.08
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.57
−0.49×
×1.07
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$128
−$1.1K
$1.2K
Recent buyer dominance0.87
−0.13
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL55.7%
+61.3 pp
-5.6%
Underwater %12.2%
−73.4 pp
85.6%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %8.3%
−37.2 pp
45.4%
Bot %7.9%
−45.8 pp
53.6%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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