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Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

data as of 2026-06-16 19:57 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$21K−$328K$349K
Holders204+17187
Trades5.1K+9764.1K
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate58.2%
−8.1 pp
66.3%
Avg ROI11.5%
+1.3 pp
10.2%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.37
+0.42×
×0.95
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.34
+0.39×
×0.94
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$299
−$9.9K
$9.6K
Recent buyer dominance0.00
−1.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-23.2%
−29.2 pp
6.0%
Underwater %76.9%
+74.7 pp
2.2%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %21.2%
+9.7 pp
11.5%
Bot %28.3%
+10.1 pp
18.2%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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