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Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?

data as of 2026-07-18 08:41 UTC▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Aug 8, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
42¢
NO
61¢
YES
42¢
YesY-NNo
Position$624−$62$686
Holders41+239
Trades124+21103
NO
61¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate39.4%
−43.1 pp
82.6%
Avg ROI76.9%
+76.2 pp
0.7%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.17
+0.32×
×0.84
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.16
+0.34×
×0.83
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$336
−$34
$370
Recent buyer dominance0.98
+0.11
0.86
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-14.2%
−35.1 pp
20.9%
Underwater %95.3%
+95.3 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %28.2%
+6.1 pp
22.1%
Bot %50.2%
+38.9 pp
11.4%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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